In June 2025, India announced plans to renegotiate the Ganga Water Treaty with Bangladesh, set to expire in 2026, signaling a shift in its diplomatic strategy. This decision follows India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025, which claimed 26 lives. By prioritizing its developmental needs and tightening control over transboundary water resources, India is sending a clear message: water-sharing agreements with neighbors must align with mutual respect and regional stability. This blog explores India’s actions on the Ganga Water Treaty, the diplomatic chokehold it creates, and how it reinforces India’s firm stance against terrorism, particularly in light of Bangladesh’s recent political shifts and their implications for regional security.
The Ganga Water Treaty: A Historical Overview
The Ganga Water Treaty, signed on December 12, 1996, between Indian Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda and Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is a landmark agreement governing the sharing of Ganges River waters at the Farakka Barrage, located 10 kilometers from the Bangladesh border. The treaty, valid for 30 years until 2026, aimed to resolve decades of disputes over water allocation between upstream India and downstream Bangladesh. The Ganges, a transboundary river, flows 129 kilometers along the India-Bangladesh border and 113 kilometers through Bangladesh, making it vital for both nations’ agriculture, industry, and livelihoods.
Key Provisions of the 1996 Treaty
- Water Sharing Formula: During the lean season (January 1 to May 31), water at Farakka is divided based on flow levels:
- Below 70,000 cusecs: Split 50:50 (35,000 cusecs each).
- Between 70,000–75,000 cusecs: Bangladesh gets 35,000 cusecs, India the rest.
- Above 75,000 cusecs: India gets 40,000 cusecs, Bangladesh the rest.
- Guaranteed Flow: Bangladesh receives a guaranteed 35,000 cusecs in alternate 10-day periods from March 11 to May 10.
- Joint Monitoring: The Indo-Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), established in 1972, monitors flows and resolves disputes through diplomacy.
- Emergency Clause: If flows drop below 50,000 cusecs, both nations must consult immediately to adjust allocations equitably.
The treaty eased tensions and fostered cooperation, but Bangladesh has criticized it for favoring India, citing water shortages during the dry season that harm agriculture and ecosystems. India, meanwhile, argues that the Farakka Barrage is essential for maintaining Kolkata Port’s navigability and meeting West Bengal’s water needs.
India’s Decision to Renegotiate: A Strategic Shift
On June 22, 2025, India informed Bangladesh of its intent to renegotiate the Ganga Water Treaty, citing increased developmental needs for water in West Bengal and Bihar. The new treaty is expected to be shorter (10–15 years instead of 30) to allow flexibility amid climate change and rising demand. This move comes after India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan in April 2025, following the Pahalgam attack, which India linked to Pakistan-backed terrorism. The Ganga Water Treaty renegotiation reflects a broader strategy of leveraging water resources as a diplomatic tool to assert India’s regional authority and combat terrorism.
Why Renegotiate Now?
Several factors drive India’s decision:
- Increased Water Needs: West Bengal and Bihar have emphasized the need for more Ganga water for irrigation, drinking, and industrial use, especially as siltation threatens Kolkata Port and the National Thermal Power Corporation at Farakka.
- Political Shifts in Bangladesh: The ousting of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government in August 2024, replaced by an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, has strained India-Bangladesh relations. The new regime’s warming ties with Pakistan and China, including a rare Pakistan-Bangladesh foreign secretary meeting in May 2025, raises concerns about Bangladesh’s stance on regional security.
- Response to Terrorism: India views the Ganga Water Treaty renegotiation as a continuation of its post-Pahalgam strategy to pressure neighbors tolerating or indirectly supporting terrorism. Pakistan’s foreign minister calling the Pahalgam attackers “freedom fighters” further hardened India’s stance, and Bangladesh’s growing alignment with Pakistan has raised red flags.
Diplomatic Choking: A Tool Against Terrorism
India’s renegotiation of the Ganga Water Treaty is a calculated form of diplomatic choking—using control over shared resources to influence neighbors’ behavior. As the upper riparian state, India holds significant leverage over the Ganges’ flow, which is critical for Bangladesh’s agriculture (91% of its water comes from India) and food security. By signaling a tougher stance on water sharing, India is reinforcing its commitment to regional stability and zero tolerance for terrorism.
How This Strengthens India’s Anti-Terrorism Stand
- Pressure on Bangladesh’s New Regime: The Yunus government’s tilt toward Pakistan and China, including discussions on Teesta River management with China, has alarmed India. Renegotiating the treaty signals that India will not maintain generous terms if Bangladesh aligns with nations supporting anti-India activities. This mirrors India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty to pressure Pakistan after the Pahalgam attack.
- Regional Power Assertion: By prioritizing its water needs, India underscores its upstream authority, reminding Bangladesh that cooperation hinges on mutual trust. This move counters the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) anti-India rhetoric, which has criticized the 1996 treaty as unfair.
- Deterrence Through Precedent: The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty sent a global message that India can use water as a strategic tool against nations linked to terrorism. The Ganga Water Treaty renegotiation extends this precedent, warning Bangladesh against harboring or tolerating terrorist elements, especially as cross-border tensions rise.
A Strategic Response to Regional Dynamics
India’s actions align with its broader geopolitical strategy, particularly in response to the Pahalgam attack, which underscored the need for decisive measures against terrorism. The attack, attributed to Pakistan-based groups, prompted India to suspend trade, diplomatic ties, and the Indus Waters Treaty, signaling a no-compromise policy. Bangladesh’s recent overtures to Pakistan, including Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar’s planned visit, have raised concerns that Dhaka might indirectly support anti-India narratives. By renegotiating the Ganga Water Treaty, India is proactively addressing these risks, ensuring its water diplomacy reinforces national security.
Why This Move Is Commendable
India’s decision to renegotiate the Ganga Water Treaty is a masterstroke in diplomatic strategy, balancing national interests with regional stability. Here’s why it deserves praise:
- Safeguarding National Interests: By prioritizing water for West Bengal and Bihar, India addresses critical domestic needs, such as maintaining Kolkata Port and supporting agriculture in a region prone to flooding and siltation. This ensures economic stability for millions.
- Countering Terrorism Through Diplomacy: Linking water-sharing to regional security sends a powerful message: nations that tolerate or align with terrorism risk losing cooperative benefits. This approach deters Bangladesh from drifting toward Pakistan’s orbit, fostering accountability.
- Adapting to Modern Challenges: The proposed shorter treaty term (10–15 years) reflects India’s foresight in addressing climate change and evolving water demands. This flexibility strengthens India’s position as a responsible upper riparian state while maintaining leverage.
- Regional Leadership: India’s actions reinforce its role as a regional powerhouse, capable of shaping South Asian geopolitics. By using water diplomacy strategically, India counters China’s growing influence in Bangladesh and asserts its dominance in transboundary resource management.
Challenges and Criticisms
While India’s strategy is bold, it faces challenges:
- Bangladesh’s Resistance: The Yunus government and the BNP may frame India’s move as hydro-hegemony, rallying domestic support against perceived Indian dominance. This could strain bilateral ties further.
- West Bengal’s Role: Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has criticized the central government for not consulting West Bengal, a key stakeholder, in earlier talks. Her support is crucial for the treaty’s success, and internal discord could complicate negotiations.
- Environmental Concerns: Critics argue that increased water diversion at Farakka could exacerbate Bangladesh’s dry-season shortages, flooding, and salinity, potentially fueling anti-India sentiment. India must balance its needs with equitable sharing to maintain diplomatic goodwill.
Despite these challenges, India’s proactive stance is a necessary response to a changing regional landscape, where political instability and terrorism threaten cooperation.
Looking Ahead: A Stronger India-Bangladesh Partnership?
The renegotiation of the Ganga Water Treaty offers an opportunity to strengthen India-Bangladesh ties, provided both nations approach it with mutual respect. India can propose a climate-resilient treaty that addresses Bangladesh’s concerns about water scarcity while meeting its own needs. Including third-party mediators, like the UN or World Bank (as with the Indus Waters Treaty), could enhance trust, though Bangladesh’s alignment with China may complicate this.
India’s diplomatic choking strategy—using water as leverage—demonstrates its resolve to combat terrorism while prioritizing national interests. By tying resource cooperation to regional stability, India sets a precedent that neighbors must reject terrorism to maintain favorable ties. This approach not only strengthens India’s anti-terrorism stance but also positions it as a leader in South Asian geopolitics, ready to navigate complex challenges with confidence.
Conclusion: A Diplomatic Triumph
India’s move to renegotiate the Ganga Water Treaty is a strategic masterstroke, blending water diplomacy with a firm stand against terrorism. By prioritizing its water needs and signaling intolerance for regional instability, India is redefining its role as a regional power. The decision, rooted in the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack and Bangladesh’s shifting alliances, underscores that cooperation requires trust and accountability. As negotiations approach in 2026, India’s bold stance will likely shape a new era of transboundary resource management, proving that diplomacy can be as powerful as military might in securing a nation’s interests.